CRUDE OIL UPDATE

The firm consensus opinion, which includes the IEA, the EIA and OPEC, showing that global demand is on target to grow some 1.4 million b/d in 2019 has convinced traders that the crude market will move into a deficit in the coming months.”“With the Federal Reserve and other central banks unlikely to attempt to tighten policy further during this cycle, a US-China trade deal becoming a reality later in the year and Chinese authorities signalling the willingness to support the economy as needed, the demand environment looks set to recover.”“Add to this strong signals from OPEC+ that it is ready and willing to increase compliance to its 1.2 million b/d worth of cuts initiated earlier in the year, which includes Russian commitments to reduce supply by some 300k b/ d, it should be no surprise that crude has moved close to our formal $60/bbl forecast ($70/bbl Brent).”“Indeed, as crude demand has not yet seen much impact from slowing global growth, while OPEC+ suggestions imply that it may even cut more that its current 1.2 million b/d commitment and risks grow that Venezuela/Iran will reduce supply faster than expected, crude prices could for a while move above our targets.”

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