Raw petroleum Price Update – Overcoming $54.82 Could Trigger Acceleration to Upside

Based on last week’s high at $54.77 and last week’s close at $52.81, the direction of the February WTI crude oil market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $54.82.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are edging lower early Monday after giving up gains from Friday that were fueled by an OPEC-led group’s decision to trim production by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in January. Gains are being limited by concerns over a slowing global economy and a possible escalation of the trade dispute between the United States and China.
At 0705 GMT, February WTI crude oil is trading $52.59, down $0.22 or -0.42%.
Weekly February WTI Crude Oil
Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. However, the closing price reversal bottom from two weeks ago and the subsequent confirmation last week shifted momentum to the upside. A trade through $49.60 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The major range is $41.48 to $76.40. Its retracement zone at $54.82 to $58.94 is resistance. The current main range is $76.40 to $49.60. If buyers are able to create enough upside momentum over the near-term then its retracement zone at $63.00 to $66.16 will become the primary upside target.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on last week’s high at $54.77 and last week’s close at $52.81, the direction of the February WTI crude oil market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $54.82.

Bullish Scenario
Taking out and sustaining a rally over the Fibonacci level at $54.82 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the major 50% level at $58.94.

Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $54.82 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a short-term pivot at $52.19. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this level. If it fails to hold then look for the selling pressure to increase with $49.60 the next likely downside target.

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